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Turkey's HVAC and refrigeration industry closed 2025 with a record export performance, yet the shape of that growth reveals as much as the total does.
Turkey's HVAC and refrigeration industry closed 2025 with a record export performance, yet the shape of that growth reveals as much as the total does. Recent trade data puts Turkish HVAC export trends at a turning point: export volumes are rising, but the destinations remain concentrated in a handful of established European markets.
For HVAC&R manufacturers in Turkey, distributors, and engineers tracking where Turkish supply is headed next, the more pressing question is not whether the industry can compete internationally; the last five years have already answered that, but rather where its next growth market will come from.
According to Türkiye İhracatçılar Meclisi, Turkey's air conditioning industry exports rose 3.5% in 2025 to nearly $7.4 billion, an all-time high and one of only six industry groups to close the year on a record.
The sector's share of national exports reached roughly 3.1%. Installation systems and components led export categories, accounting for $2.78 billion, and Istanbul alone accounted for $2.854 billion of total HVAC exports, ahead of Manisa, Bursa, Kocaeli, and Izmir.
On the manufacturing side, ISKID reports the domestic split air conditioner market grew from 2.5 million units in 2024 toward roughly 3 million units in 2025, supported by above-average temperatures and rising demand for energy-efficient equipment.
Germany, the United Kingdom, Italy and France remain the largest single destinations, and close to half of all exports still go to European Union countries, a concentration that leaves the refrigeration export market exposed if EU demand growth slows.
Regulatory pressure on energy performance is changing what buyers specify, not just how products are marketed.
Manufacturers exporting into markets with strict efficiency codes are shifting product lines toward variable-speed compressors, inverter technology and lower standby consumption to stay eligible for public and commercial tenders.
The global move away from high-global-warming-potential refrigerants, driven by the Kigali Amendment and regional F-Gas rules, is pushing exporters to requalify product ranges around natural and low-GWP refrigerants.
Suppliers that document compliance early gain an advantage in markets moving toward stricter refrigerant limits on a fixed timeline.
Global HVAC trends point toward a ventilation and air conditioning market moving from roughly $164.3 billion in 2023 to an estimated $398.6 billion by 2032, with IoT-enabled monitoring and building management integration among the primary growth drivers.
Exporters positioning products around remote diagnostics and automation are better aligned with where specifications are heading.
As EU markets mature, more Turkish exporters are looking toward the Middle East, Central Asia, and Eurasia, where demand for imported HVAC&R equipment remains strong and less saturated by established suppliers.
Expansion into new regions carries real friction. Mehmet Şanal, chairman of Turkey's HVAC-R Exporters' Association (İSİB), pointed to raw material price swings, rising logistics costs and sharper competition across export markets as the pressures the sector absorbed last year, and told Anadolu Agency that 2026 will be "a year to test competitiveness in international markets."
Certification requirements also differ by destination, and a compliance mismatch or a missed lead time can undo an otherwise strong product fit.
The opportunity side is concrete. Russia's HVAC and refrigeration market remains one of the most import-dependent in Europe, with over 70% of equipment relying on imported components and only around 30% of the market currently served by international brands.
The domestic HVAC market was worth roughly $4.0 billion in 2023, with steady growth forecast through the decade, while commercial and industrial refrigeration is expanding by more than 7% annually, particularly in air conditioning equipment such as chillers and VRF systems, and in air conditioning accessories like compressors, valves and refrigerants.
For exporters weighing where a maturing, EU-concentrated portfolio can grow, that combination of high import dependence and comparatively low international brand penetration is the more distinctive gap.
For HVAC&R manufacturers and refrigeration export market participants, regional diversification now carries as much weight as product development. Meeting the buyers who evaluate suppliers on documentation, lead time, and certification in person remains one of the more reliable ways to shorten that evaluation cycle.
AIRVent, an HVAC trade exhibition held annually in Krasnogorsk, brings together design, installation, wholesale and retail buyers from across Russia and Eurasia alongside air conditioning equipment suppliers already active in the region, the kind of direct access that a certification document or a product sheet cannot fully replace.
Turkey's HVAC and refrigeration exporters enter 2026 from a position of real strength: record exports, a maturing domestic industry and growing international credibility.
The next stage of Turkish HVAC export trends will likely be defined less by how much Turkey exports and more by where. Russia's import-dependent, under-penetrated market offers one of the more concrete opportunities for exporters looking to diversify beyond an EU-heavy base.
Turkish HVAC&R manufacturers ready to reach Russia and Eurasia's growing demand can submit an AIRVent exhibition enquiry to connect with buyers actively sourcing new suppliers.